Almaden Valley Homes For Sale | Are Home Prices Softening or Are They Falling?

We've streamlined and perfected the process of finding dream homes for our clients in Almaden Valley      

We know you want to spend less time looking at perhaps hundreds of homes for sale, looking all over. . .just to find that special place, allow our knowledge, experience and passion for Almaden Valley to guide you through the process of finding the right neighborhood that will fit your lifestyle. We strive in making it easier and have a direct path to help you find your dream home.    

We are also your Trusted Resource for Almaden Valley Real Estate, offering complete solutions for buyers, from financing assistance to creating innovative marketing strategies for home sellers.     

Check out the Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Report here!  

We are your neighborhood specialists and we are ready to help you..    

Today I would like to speak to you about Are Home Prices Softening or Are They Falling?

We are beginning to see reports that more housing inventory is coming to the market and that buyer demand may not be increasing at the same pace it did earlier this year. The result will be many headlines written to address the impact that these two situations will have on home values.

Many of these headline writers will confuse “softening home prices” with “falling home prices,” but there is a major difference between the two.

The data will begin to show that home values are not appreciating at the same levels as they had over the last several years (softening prices). This does NOT mean that prices are depreciating (falling prices).

Here is an example: Over the last several years, national home values increased by more than 6% annually. If you had a home worth $300,000 at the beginning of the year, it would be worth $318,000 by year’s end. If the appreciation rate “falls” to 4%, that $300,000 house would be worth $312,000 at the end of next year – a $6,000 difference.

The price of the home did not fall. It just didn’t increase at the level it had the previous year.

Appreciation rates are projected to end this year at approximately 5%, and then drop to somewhere between 4-5% next year. This drop in appreciation rate will cause home price increases to soften.

Again, this does not mean that home prices will depreciate, but instead that they will appreciate more slowly.

Bottom Line

Be careful when reading headlines that discuss home values. Some headline writers will be legitimately confused and will use the word falling in place of softening. Others will realize that the headline “Home Prices are Falling!” will get more clicks than “Home Prices are Softening” and will intentionally write the more compelling headline. Read the article. If the word depreciation is not mentioned, home values are not falling.

Source.. KCM Don Orason Blog

“All agents are NOT alike, We are Different … and We Want To Earn Your Business and Trust”

“The real estate market is constantly changing. I would like the opportunity to show you some of the new ways in which you are able to buy, sell and search for new homes”. 

We continually invest in the latest technology to give you the most up to date information on homes for sale and the most exposure for your property when selling.  

Give us a call at 408–741–9300 before buying or selling your next home. 

Don Orason, Owner — Silicon Valley Real Estate Team   

www.siliconvalleyrealestateteam.com

Silver Creek Valley Homes For Sale | What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices?

There's is an abundance of open space, hiking trails, great schools and charm. Locals know that Silver Creek is a great place to raise a family.

While some people may say that the area is energized by new growth and rapid changes, Silver Creek value comes from its welcoming warm atmosphere, where neighbors participate enjoying various spectacular amenities enjoying a great convenient location.

All great neighborhoods have this in common. Pride in ownership is obvious when the residents, whether renters or owners, maintain their homes and care about their neighborhood. Neighbors participate to connect and create local groups that bring the residents together for the betterment of the area.

Connect with the past, present and future in Silver Creek Valley, one of the most charming neighborhood you'll find in the San Jose area.

Every home buyer has a wish when looking for a home, while not all of them are granted, the ‘feel good magic’ happens when they start seeing homes around neighborhoods of this beautiful valley.

Is the people what makes this place a little different from others, It's a great place to live.

Neighbors welcome you with open arms and share indiscriminately the beauty and charm that Silver Creek has to offer.

Today I would like to point out specifically about What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices?

Home prices are at the top of everyone’s minds. Can they maintain their current pace of appreciation? Will rising mortgage rates negatively impact home values? Will the next economic slowdown cause prices to crash?

Let’s try to answer these questions based on what has happened in the past as well as what we know about the current real estate market.

The Impact of Rising Interest Rates

We explained earlier this year that rising mortgage rates have not negatively impacted home prices in the past and probably wouldn’t this time either. Freddie Mac’s comments were very direct:

“In the current housing market, the driving force behind the increase in prices is a low supply of both new and existing homes combined with historically low rates. As mortgage rates increase, the demand for home purchases will likely remain strong relative to the constrained supply and continue to put upward pressure on home prices.”

They were correct. So far this year, home values have continued to appreciate above normal historic percentages and it appears the gradual increase in rates has had little impact on prices.

The Impact of an Economic Slowdown

Many people fear that when the economy turns, we may see the same depreciation in home values as we did a decade ago.

However, we recently reported that the same group of economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists who predicted the next recession will occur in the next 18-24 months have also projected that house prices will continue to appreciate for the next five years, albeit at smaller percentages.

It Comes Down to Supply and Demand

As always, home prices will be determined by the demand to purchase compared to the available inventory of homes for sale. For the last six years, demand has far exceeded the available supply which has resulted in the average annual appreciation to top 6% since 2012. That is far greater than the historic norm of 3.6% annual appreciation that we saw prior to the housing boom.

There are currently small signs that housing inventory is slowly beginning to increase. Months supply of houses for sale matched last year’s numbers for the last two months after 37 consecutive months of decreasing inventory. New construction data has also shown positive signs that inventory will be increasing.

As inventory begins to meet demand, we will see appreciation return to more normal levels. We are already seeing projections coming in lower than the 6.2% annual average we have seen more recently.

CoreLogic is predicting that home values will appreciate by 5.1% over the next twelve months and the Home Price Expectation Survey calls for values to increase by 4.2% in 2019.

Bottom Line

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it best:

“We’re seeing the first indications that price appreciation may be slowing, but the underlying fundamental housing market conditions support a natural moderation of house prices rather than a sharp decline.”

Source.. KCM Don Orason Blog

“All agents are NOT alike, We are Different … and We Want To Earn Your Business and Trust”

“The real estate market is constantly changing. I would like the opportunity to show you some of the new ways in which you are able to buy, sell and search for new homes”. 

We continually invest in the latest technology to give you the most up to date information on homes for sale and the most exposure for your property when selling.   

Give us a call at 408–741–9300 before buying or selling your next home. 

Don Orason, Owner — Silicon Valley Real Estate Team   

www.siliconvalleyrealestateteam.com

Almaden Valley Homes For Sale | 4 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Bubble

We've streamlined and perfected the process of finding dream homes for our clients in Almaden Valley      

We know you want to spend less time looking at perhaps hundreds of homes for sale, looking all over. . .just to find that special place, allow our knowledge, experience and passion for Almaden Valley to guide you through the process of finding the right neighborhood that will fit your lifestyle. We strive in making it easier and have a direct path to help you find your dream home.    

We are also your Trusted Resource for Almaden Valley Real Estate, offering complete solutions for buyers, from financing assistance to creating innovative marketing strategies for home sellers.     

Check out the Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Report here!  

We are your neighborhood specialists and we are ready to help you..    

Today I would like to speak to you about 4 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Bubble

With home prices continuing to appreciate above historic levels, some are concerned that we may be heading for another housing ‘boom & bust.’ It is important to remember, however, that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

Here are four key metrics that will explain why:

1.- Home Prices

2.- Mortgage Standards

3.- Foreclosure Rates

4.- Housing Affordability

1. HOME PRICES

There is no doubt that home prices have reached 2006 levels in many markets across the country. However, after more than a decade, home prices should be much higher based on inflation alone.

Last week, CoreLogic reported that,

“The inflation-adjusted U.S. median sale price in June 2006 was $247,110 (or $199,899 in 2006 dollars), compared with $213,400 in March 2018.” (This is the latest data available.)

2. MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a monthly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Their July Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

3. FORECLOSURE RATES

A major cause of the housing crash last decade was the number of foreclosures that hit the market. They not only increased the supply of homes for sale but were also being sold at 20-50% discounts. Foreclosures helped drive down all home values.

Today, foreclosure numbers are lower than they were before the housing boom. Here are the number of consumers with new foreclosures according to the Federal Reserve’s most recent Household Debt and Credit Report:

 * 2003: 203,320 (earliest reported numbers)

 * 2009: 566,180 (at the valley of the crash)

 * Today: 76,480

Foreclosures today are less than 40% of what they were in 2003.

4. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Contrary to many headlines, home affordability is better now than it was prior to the last housing boom. In the same article referenced in #1, CoreLogic revealed that in the vast majority of markets, “the inflation-adjusted, principal-and-interest mortgage payments that homebuyers have committed to this year remain much lower than their pre-crisis peaks.”

They went on to explain:

“The main reason the typical mortgage payment remains well below record levels in most of the country is that the average mortgage rate back in June 2006, when the U.S. typical mortgage payment peaked, was about 6.7 percent, compared with an average mortgage rate of about 4.4 percent in March 2018.”

The “price” of a home may be higher, but the “cost” is still below historic norms.

Bottom Line

After using these four key housing metrics to compare today to last decade, we can see that the current market is not anything like that bubble market.

Source.. KCM Don Orason Blog

“All agents are NOT alike, We are Different … and We Want To Earn Your Business and Trust”

“The real estate market is constantly changing. I would like the opportunity to show you some of the new ways in which you are able to buy, sell and search for new homes”. 

We continually invest in the latest technology to give you the most up to date information on homes for sale and the most exposure for your property when selling.  

Give us a call at 408–741–9300 before buying or selling your next home. 

Don Orason, Owner — Silicon Valley Real Estate Team   

www.siliconvalleyrealestateteam.com 

Almaden Valley Homes For Sale | Will Home Prices Fall as Mortgage Rates Rise?

We've streamlined and perfected the process of finding dream homes for our clients in Almaden Valley      

We know you want to spend less time looking at perhaps hundreds of homes for sale, looking all over. . .just to find that special place, allow our knowledge, experience and passion for Almaden Valley to guide you through the process of finding the right neighborhood that will fit your lifestyle. We strive in making it easier and have a direct path to help you find your dream home.    

We are also your Trusted Resource for Almaden Valley Real Estate, offering complete solutions for buyers, from financing assistance to creating innovative marketing strategies for home sellers.     

Check out the Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Report here!  

We are your neighborhood specialists and we are ready to help you..    

Today I would like to speak to you about  Will Home Prices Fall as Mortgage Rates Rise?

Mortgage interest rates have increased by more than half of a point since the beginning of the year. They are projected to increase by an additional half of a point by year’s end. Because of this increase in rates, some are guessing that home prices will depreciate.

However, some prominent experts in the housing industry doubt that home values will be negatively impacted by the rise in rates.

Mark Fleming, First American's Chief Economist:

“Understanding the resiliency of the housing market in a rising mortgage rate environment puts the likely rise in mortgage rates into perspective – they are unlikely to materially impact the housing market…

The driving force behind the increase are healthy economic conditions…The healthy economy encourages more homeownership demand and spurs household income growth, which increases consumer house-buying power. Mortgage rates are on the rise because of a stronger economy and our housing market is well positioned to adapt.”

Terry Loebs, Founder of Pulsenomics:

“Constrained home supply, persistent demand, very low unemployment, and steady economic growth have given a jolt to the near-term outlook for U.S. home prices. These conditions are overshadowing concerns that mortgage rate increases expected this year might quash the appetite of prospective home buyers.”

Laurie Goodman, Codirector of the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban Institute:

“Higher interest rates are generally positive for home prices, despite decreasing affordability…There were only three periods of prolonged higher rates in 1994, 2000, and the ‘taper tantrum’ in 2013. In each period, home price appreciation was robust.”

Industry reports are also calling for substantial home price appreciation this year. Here are three examples:

 * The Home Price Expectation Survey says that prices will appreciate by 5.8% this year.

 * The Freddie Mac Outlook Report is looking for home prices to appreciate by around 7% in 2018.

 * The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.2% on a year-over-year basis.

Bottom Line

As Freddie Mac reported earlier this year in their Insights Report, “Nowhere to go but up? How increasing mortgage rates could affect housing,”

“As mortgage rates increase, the demand for home purchases will likely remain strong relative to the constrained supply and continue to put upward pressure on home prices.”

Source.. KCM Don Orason Blog

“All agents are NOT alike, We are Different … and We Want To Earn Your Business and Trust”

“The real estate market is constantly changing. I would like the opportunity to show you some of the new ways in which you are able to buy, sell and search for new homes”. 

We continually invest in the latest technology to give you the most up to date information on homes for sale and the most exposure for your property when selling.  

Give us a call at 408–741–9300 before buying or selling your next home. 

Don Orason, Owner — Silicon Valley Real Estate Team   

www.siliconvalleyrealestateteam.com  

Trends at a Glance

Almaden Valley Home Sale Market Report

View the most current real estate activity for Almaden Valley in San Jose. The market report includes a history of recent Almaden Valley home sales, active, pending and sold properties.

Trends at a Glance

Trends at a Glance